The Fives: Is Finch a cinch? Will West River decide the abortion ban issue? And what about Dist. 32?

By Todd Williams, Journal staff | Tuesday, November 04, 2008

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We in the South Dakota media have been spoiled.

The string of recent elections have had an import greater than normally attached to a state with fewer than 800,000 people and a mere three electoral votes. There was the Johnson-Thune senate race, and then the Daschle-Thune race. And of course, there was the first go at a ban on abortions statewide.

So at first glimpse, this year's election cycle may seem to lack a little luster in comparison with those that have gone before it in the 2000s. But a second look would reveal a number of highly interesting races that would pique even the novice politico's interest.

Here's the short list of some of the most interesting races that we'll be following come Election Day tomorrow.

5. Dennis Finch vs. Dennis Schmidt

It's a tactic rarely seen in races at a local level in South Dakota. But a pink postcard mailing to some voters in District 33 decried that Dennis Finch, a 64-year-old father of four and a grandfather of five who has been married for nearly four decades, is pushing a "radical homosexual agenda" in his campaign.

The effort was led by one-man-PAC David Astin of Hermosa, whose mailings of the post card with a photo of two men on the verge of locking lips certainly caught the attention of Journal staffers. Astin said he doesn't have anything personal against Finch and that he would have sent more mailings out against other candidates supported by Equality South Dakota, the gay-rights group that has advocated for Finch's election as well as dozens more south Dakotans.

But Finch got the call. And it wasn't just from Astin.

The South Dakota Gun Owners Association, a group that sees the National Rifle Association as too left-leaning for its liking, also went on the attack against Finch. Never mind that Finch isn't only an NRA member but also serves on the board of directors for the Black Hills Sportsmen, the back-to-back attacks seem a bit out of place in these parts.

Finch's opponent, incumbent Dennis Schmidt, didn't have anything to do with either of the mailings, and he said he is steering clear in even acknowledging them, even to dispute them.

Regardless, it made a race that wasn't even on most people's radar a mere two weeks ago into one to watch on Tuesday.

4. John McCain vs. Barack Obama

Of course this will be on the list, but it takes on special meaning for South Dakota because of the uncertainty of where the state is trending.

Far from the national media glare, neither campaign has taken much of an interest in the Rushmore state since the day the primaries ended. And with our whopping three electoral votes, who can blame them.

However,  a tag along poll three or four weeks ago showed that the gap between the two among South Dakota voters was nearly in the margin of error. That means that, on paper (at least the paper that held those particular poll results), Obama might defeat McCain in South Dakota.

It seems a bit hard to believe, being that the last time -- and about only time other than FDR during the depression -- the state swung the way of a Democrat for the Oval Office was the 1964 election of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

Which, west of the Missouri, is particularly interesting since Goldwater may have been the most perfect presidential candidate for West River ideals since Teddy Roosevelt.  But I digress.

3. Theresa Two Bulls at the center of all things political

About 99 percent of the time, the race between two longtime foes in the same party ends in said primary.

The other 1 percent of the time makes for some great reading. That's the case with the District 27 Democratic primary race between incumbent Theresa Two Bulls and challenger but longtime South Dakota lawmaker Jim Bradford.

When Two Bulls won the primary by a handful of votes back in June, that could have been the end of this fascinating story. But it wasn't.

Since then:

• Bradford said he was going to seek a recount on the 28 vote loss.
  
  
  
  



• He then failed to get his papers in on time to launch the recount.
  
  
  
  



• Bradford then switched to the oft-maligned (at least on the reservation) Republican party
  
  
  
  



• Two Bulls and fellow Democrats launched an inquiry into whether Bradford's move was legal.

It turns out it was, so we get to see whether Bradford will carry the votes he did in the primary plus a few more Republican votes.

Of course, Two Bulls has other political aspirations in view on Tuesday. She will be taking on Russell Means in the race for Oglala Sioux Tribe president. Although the potential for her winning two seats would create an interesting dichotomy in political circles as she could consider holding office in South Dakota and the sovereign nation of the OST, she has said she would forgo holding both offices simultaneously, opting for the tribal chairmanship over the state Senate.

2. Initiated Measure 11

You know it can't be too bad of an election year when Initiated Measure 11 -- an ballot measure that would ban nearly all abortions in South Dakota -- isn't necessarily the most closely watched item on Election Day.

Of course, some of that may be due simply to fatigue. Regardless, expect this one to be close. A poll a little more than a week ago put the measure at a dead heat, with 44 percent of respondents backing the ban and 44 percent rejecting it, with 12 percent undecided.

It seems highly unlikely that 12 percent of South Dakotans are undecided. Heck, it seems unlikely that there are 12 South Dakotans in total that are undecided.

This ballot measure, though, was expected to be closer as the proponents of the ban took polls to heart from the last ban attempt in that voters said they could support a ban if it included exceptions for rape and incest.

And in a strange twist of electoral fortune, it very well may be West River voters who will decide the fate of the measure. Whereas most elections are fought and determined on the streets of Sioux Falls and the nearby surrounding region, abortion ban proponents face their stiffest challenge among the independent and slightly less churched voters west of the Missouri River.

Regardless, more people will be watching this issue throughout Tuesday night and it is the most likely to go into overtime as the race could be determined by one county's vote.

1. Adelstein vs. Katus vs. Schwiesow

OK, I have a little home district bias here. But the District 32 three-way race between incumbent Tom Katus, a Democrat, his Republican challenger, Stan Adelstein and independent Elli Schwiesow, is one of the most fascinating and difficult to call.

It kind of plays like daytime drama, simply the most recent development in District 32 politics. To catch you up on previous episodes, the story began a couple of years ago when Republican Elli Schwiesow was able to upend incumbent Stan Adelstein in the GOP primary for the District 32 Senate seat.

Adelstein, in turn, threw his support to Schwiesow's Democratic opponent in the general election, Tom Katus.

Surprisingly, it worked, as Katus turned in a rare victory for the Democrats west of the Missouri River on non-reservation land.

Fast forward to this year's election, where Adelstein announced that he would be challenging the man he helped put in office, the now-incumbent Katus. The re-introduction of Adelstein into the political races even sparked the staunchly conservative cross-town rival Bill Napoli to comment on what a good job the Democratic Katus had done in the Senate.

Then, enter Schwiesow, who opted to avoid the party machine of which she had been an integral part as she filed as an independent.

The three-way race has been of much debate. Will Stan and Tom split the vote, giving the election to the independent Schwiesow and keeping the district out of Republican control for two consecutive terms? Or will the continuing battle between Adelstein and Schwiesow create a path for Katus to retain his seat? Or will Adelstein's name recognition and his Republican credentials -- as well as a whole lotta spending -- put the former lawmaker back in the Senate?

Stay tuned.