How Hillary won South Dakota, and how McCain can do the same
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the ground war in South Dakota through personal campaigning and "retail politics" that counted with state voters and is being praised, in retrospect, by Republicans and Democrats alike.
Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., who has won four out of five statewide campaigns for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, said the succession of personal stops by Clinton, her husband and daughter was effective.
"She showed up, and in South Dakota, that matters. They want to see you and touch you. And she ran a very retail campaign," Thune said. "There was a lot of personal touch on her side. Obama drew in a big crowd, but he kind of popped in and popped out."
Clinton finished the campaign with a cross-state blitz that saw her, former President Bill Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea, in the state every day for the final six days of the campaign."
In the end, the personal stops by the three Clintons far outnumbered Obama's individual visits and included a variety of smaller towns and four Native American reservations. All told, voters seemed to respond to that more than the advertising blitz of Obama and endorsements by former Sen. Tom Daschle, Sen. Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and others, Thune said.
"In some cases, endorsements can backfire if voters think you're trying to tell them what to do," Thune said.
South Dakota Democratic Party Chairman Jack Billion of Sioux Falls doesn't think Clinton's win was a backlash against endorsements by Democrats who are widely respected in South Dakota. But he agrees with Thune on the effectiveness of Clinton's personalize campaign.
"The personal visits by all the Clintons made such a tremendous difference in South Dakota," Billion said. "With Bill and Hillary, and even Chelsea, they were able to cover a lot of ground. And it made an impression on South Dakota voters."
Of almost equal importance, however, was the fact that Obama was already preparing for his general-election campaign and couldn't devote the personal time in South Dakota that Clinton did, Billion said.
"For better or worse, I think Sen. Obama was busy with some other stresses in his campaign," Billion said. "With him closing in on the number of delegates he needed, he was looking ahead. But Hillary was an excellent candidate who works unbelievably hard, campaigns well and is just a remarkable lady."
Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, said much the same thing about Clinton during a public speech in Louisiana the morning after South Dakota's primary. McCain praised the New York senator and former first lady for her work ethic and never-give-up style and said her near-miss campaign would benefit women today and in the future.
Thune said he believed that McCain's compliments of Clinton were sincere, even though the two senators disagree profoundly on fundamental point of politics and policy.
"I honestly think, just knowing him, and with both of them serving on the Armed Services Committee, that he respects her," Thune said. "And you have to respect how hard she works and some of the glass ceilings she's broken with this campaign."
McCain also was making it clear that he wants the votes of Clinton supporters, Thune said.
"I think he is also talking to those voters who supported her who he believes he has a chance of winning - those independents, some of those Democrats who may be pro-life and pro-gun," Thune said. "I think he was saying to those voters out there that he respects what she did and will work hard for their votes."
McCain might get some of those votes in South Dakota in the general election, where voters have gone Republican in every presidential year since 1964. Although confident of McCain's chances of winning the state's three electoral votes this fall, Thune said the current political environment doesn't allow either candidate to ignore many states.
"South Dakota is not a state that candidates, either Democrat or Republican, will spend a lot of time in," Thune said. "But this is one of those years when I don't think you can take anything for granted."
McCain is already scheduled to come to South Dakota during the Sturgis motorcycle rally. And Thune, who is sometimes mentioned as a possible running mate for McCain, hopes there might be other appearances connected with that visit. In his outreach beyond the Republican base, personal appearances might be important, here and elsewhere, Thune said.
"Most elections in South Dakota aren't won at the base. They're won at the margins," Thune said. "Elections are won or lost in that 20 percent in the middle who can swing either way. And I think McCain reaches those voters really well."
Contact Kevin Woster at 394-8413 or kevin.woster@rapidcityjournal.com.
Posted in Local on Monday, June 9, 2008 11:00 pm
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